RocketLab ($RKLB) - Investment Flash Update Post Q4 2024 Earnings Call
NEUTRON SPEND PEAKS, ELECTRON MIX LIFTS MARGINS — ADD 25 BPS ON WEAKNESS AHEAD OF 2H-25 FIRST FLIGHT
WHAT’S NEW — CHANGE LOG (vs. 3Q-24 Flash)
First-flight timing refined from “mid-25” to 2H-25; slip just 2-3 mo.
Cap-ex bump: barge Return on Investment + second Archimedes stand added; Neutron MVP budget still $250-300 m (≈$200 m spent).
FY-24 rev $436 m (+78 % y/y) beat Street by 4 %; GM 26.6 % GAAP / 32 % non-GAAP.
Flat-Alite bus unveiled: stackable LEO platform aimed at large comms constellations; fully integrates in-house wheels, panels, radios.
FY-25 launch manifest now “>20” Electron/HASTE vs. 16 in ’24; Electron ASP in backlog >$8 m.
KEY DELTAS BOX
∆ Cadence: 5 Electron/HASTE in 4Q (record) incl. two MARC-TB hypersonic tests; 2025 demand >20 launches.
∆ Backlog: steady at $1.07 bn; Launch share up to $386 m on multi-year HASTE & IQPS deals.
∆ Gross margin: 4Q-24 GAAP 27.8 % (high end); Electron GM low-30s %.
∆ Cash runway: YE-24 liquidity $484 m; 1Q-25 burn guided to double (≈$60-80 m) as Neutron capex/long-lead SDA parts hit.
∆ Guide: 1Q-25 rev $117-123 m (-9 % q/q seasonality, +29 % y/y); adj. EBITDA loss −$33-35 m.
QUICK MODEL REVISIONS (POST 4Q-24 CALL)
*Consensus as of 27 Feb 2025.
TAPE CHECK
Since 26 Feb close RKLB −4 % to $21, underperforming ARKX (-1 %); IV edged to 46 % as investors price peak cash burn.
COMPETITIVE EDGE ASSESSMENT
Electron’s 60-launch heritage plus HASTE’s hypersonic niche widen moat; backlog ASP >$8 m underscores pricing power. Neutron infrastructure nearly complete—LC-3 pad, giant LNG tanks, “hungry-hippo” fairing under actuation—while Archimedes fires weekly on dual cells. Vertical integration deepens: Flat-Alite leverages in-house wheels, SolAero arrays, Frontier radios; stackable bus + Neutron fairing unlock lowest $/sat mass for wide-aperture comms. Cash-efficient barge recovery keeps 13 t LEO performance.
CATALYST MAP (🆕 first)
🆕 LC-3 grand-opening (May/Jun-25).
Second Archimedes test cell fully online (Q2-25).
Return on Investment barge sea-trials (Q3-25).
Neutron orbital debut & soft-splashdown (2H-25).
SDA Tranche-2 Transport awards (late-25).
HASTE MARC-TB 2.0 flight series (’25-’26).
Flat-Alite first customer MoU (watch H2-25).
BEAR COUNTERPOINTS & REBUTTAL
“Cash burn spikes above $100 m/qtr.” – Peak 1Q-25 draw driven by one-off barge & SDA long-lead buys; model shows burn halving post-launch as capex rolls off.
“Neutron will slip again—composites vendor issues.” – Stage-1 tank now in-house; hungry-hippo halves actuating; only flight-licence & engine qual remain on critical path.
“Flat-Alite diffuses focus, invites budget creep.” – Platform reuses existing qualified subsystems; CAPEX minimal, keeps optionality for Rocket-Lab-owned constellation without near-term P&L drag.
ACTIONABLE TAKEAWAY
Increase position 25 bps (to 165 bps) on pullbacks ≤$19 ahead of LC-3 ribbon-cut. Monitor 200-sec Archimedes qual by Aug-25; failure or launch slip beyond 1Q-26 would trigger trim to 100 bps.
Disclaimer
This commentary is for informational purposes only and reflects the author’s opinions as of the publication date. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The analysis relies on public information believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Forward-looking statements involve risks, assumptions, and uncertainties that may change without notice. The author and affiliated accounts may hold positions in securities mentioned. Perform your own due diligence or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions. The author assumes no liability for actions taken based on this report.