Paypal ($PYPL) - Earnings Cheatsheet | Q2 2025 (7/29/2025)
Solid execution on branded checkout & Venmo; watch PSP drag and reg-risk skew near term.
Consensus vs. House Table
Risk-Flag Key
🟢 Low (≤ 1σ), 🟡 Medium (1–2σ), 🔴 High (> 2σ) vs. 3-year variability.
Positioning Snapshot
Options: 30-day IV +140 bp w/w; put/call 0.65
Price action: +7.8% since Q1 print; short interest 1.7% of float
One-Liner Valuation
Trades at 10.7× EV/NTM EBITDA, a 20–25% discount to fintech peers despite structurally expanding branded checkout margins and growing agentic moat.
Recent Impactful Events & Estimated Impacts
Apple-in-Safari PayPal button (Jul 2025): desktop checkout share ↑ ⇒ +110 bp TPV
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