OBBB Impact on the Oscar Health (OSCR) Thesis

Inside the OBBB: decoding the Medicaid & Marketplace shake-up—and what it really means for Oscar Health (OSCR)

Jul 05, 2025

∙ Paid

Quick Take

OBBB’s Medicaid-integrity and marketplace-verification package is a mixed bag: it shrinks headline ACA enrollment but tilts the risk mix and pushes millions of “Medicaid drift” adults into subsidised exchange plans. Net, we still see a modest upside skew to OSCR’s 2027–28 revenue curve and an even stronger moat against legacy carriers.

Sections 71109 and 71301 of the OBBB package quietly redraw the borders of U.S. health coverage:

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